Monthly Economic Update November 2015


Monthly Summary
Relative to dramatic gains in October, global investment markets were largely in a holding pattern in November. The outcome of upcoming December monetary policy meetings of both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) were front and center in the minds of investors. Likewise, the November jobs report and an influential OPEC meeting, each scheduled for early December, added to uncertainty. All told, investors had little appetite for big investment bets, and currency driven weakness of international investments was the month’s most meaningful issue.
Investors expect a more accommodative ECB juxtaposed against the start of a tightening campaign by the U.S. Federal Reserve. This near-term divergence of monetary policy — the first in quite some time — has driven heightened investor angst and accounts for the dollar strength previously mentioned.

In terms of economic data, U.S. labor market strength is supportive of Fed tightening. Other metrics, such as manufacturing data, inflation, and consumer confidence, have exhibited weaker trends. The November payrolls report will likely be the ultimate driver of Fed action in mid-December. As for the ECB, strong talk will need to be backed up by commensurate action. Markets, increasingly expectant of aggressive action, will otherwise be disappointed.

Economic Data

Nov Releases

Nov Releases 2

Market Returns

Nov Returns

Disclaimers
This commentary was written by Robert W. Lamberti, CFA, VP and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Summit Equities, Inc. and Summit Financial Resources, Inc. Source of performance: Morningstar®. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The investment and market data contained in this newsletter is not an offer to sell or purchase any security or commodity. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The MSCI EAFE and Emerging Markets Indexes were created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and designed to measure equity market performance in global developed and emerging markets, respectively. The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a market capitalization-weighted index comprised of government securities, mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities, corporate securities, and a small number of foreign bonds traded in the U.S. It is used to represent the universe of bonds in the domestic market. REITs, Real Estate Investment Trusts, are securities that invest in real estate directly, either through properties or mortgages. REITs receive special tax considerations and typically offer investors high yields, however, may have liquidity constraints. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Information throughout this Newsletter, whether stock quotes, charts, articles, or any other statement or statements regarding markets or other financial information, are obtained from sources which we, and our suppliers believe to be reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. Neither we nor our information providers shall be liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness of, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the reader. To unsubscribe from this investment newsletter please reply to this email with “unsubscribe” in the subject. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or a guarantee of future performance. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. Securities and Investment Advisory Services offered through Summit Equities, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC, and Financial Planning Services offered through Summit Equities, Inc.’s affiliate Summit Financial Resources, Inc. 4 Campus Drive, Parsippany, NJ 07054. Tel. 973-285-3600, Fax: 973-285-3666.

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