A Message From CEO Michael Conway on Investors Facing Election Anxiety
CEO Michael Conway addresses the ugliness of our current election cycle and how investors can carry on.
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Hello, everyone. If you haven’t heard, we are finally nearing the end of what seemed like an endless election season. On November 8th, the country will elect one of the two most disliked presidential candidates in the history of our country. Somehow despite hope in our democracy, we must choose between a billionaire television personality and a figurehead of what many consider the corrupt political machine. It’s clear something’s amiss when a Saturday Night Live of our politics looks no more insane than reality. Needless to say, the divisiveness of the election has plagued the nation with general anxiety about the future of our country. Many financial experts agree nervousness could manifest in the form of stock market volatility leading up to election day. Historical data supports this theory as volatility has increased from September to October in almost every presidential election year.
If volatility hit markets prior to previous elections, it’s easy to think this might reoccur in the current climate. But what about beyond election day? Some say this election might define the direction of the economy and markets. Some investors will actually try to guess both the result of the election and how stocks decide to react despite the fact that historical data shows no clear correlation between election results and market performance. We believe policy will effectively remain unchanged amid our legislative ineptness, regardless of which candidate takes office. We therefore don’t expect the election itself to dramatically affect markets beyond shorter-term volatility.
However in a year filled with preposterous storyline, conventional wisdom and historical data can only get us so far. Political pundits said Donald Trump could never win a primary. The Federal Reserve told us we’d have four interest rate hikes this year. Financial theorists spent months warning against Brexit and the collapse that would ensue. The stock market reached new highs despite economic stagnancy. Clearly, 2016 has been a year to break tradition. As we’ve said many times before, we should keep the advice of the supposed experts and market gurus at arm’s length until telling the future actually becomes possible.
We believe this election might cause some short-term volatility, but we know that guessing any specific future effects is a fool’s errand. As the campaigns come to a close, we believe investors should stay the course, stay diversified, and stay hopeful. We believe in the resiliency of this country and we believe this country will prove itself better than our two presidential candidates. As always, give us a call if you have nay questions or need to discuss anything. Thank you.